伊拉克战争之后的世界经济

The International Economy after the Iraqi War

伊拉克战场上的硝烟渐渐散去 ,但战后世界经济的走势仍然迷雾重重。本文试图分析伊拉克战争之后的世界经济走势。我们的基本判断是 :伊拉克战争无法刺激美国经济增长 ,估计今年美国经济的增长率大致在 2 .5 %以下。从长期来看 ,美元将仍然贬值。人民币升值的压力增加。石油价格近期保持平稳的可能性较大 ,但是长期来看石油价格的波动性仍然较大。战后美国和欧盟以及俄罗斯的利益冲突加剧 ,这可能会影响到世界经济秩序的演变。从近期的趋势来看 ,多哈回合面临搁浅的危险 ,美国可能会更多地强调双边贸易合作和区域贸易合作 ,而不是继续推进多边贸易合作。全球化处在相对低潮的阶段。发达国家的贸易保护主义抬头 ,主要国家的货币汇率频繁波动 。

Uncertainties still exist in the world economy even as the Iraqi war is coming to an end.This paper attempts to analyze trends in the world economy after the Iraqi war.The author concludes:The war will not stimulate the U.S.economy and its growth rate may be lower than 2.5 percent this year.The U.S.dollar will tend to be further devaluated in the coming two or three years,thus exerting pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB. In the short run,oil prices will remain stable.In the long run,however,fluctuations in the price of oil cannot be excluded.Conflicts among the United States,the EU, and Russia will be aggravated,which may affect the global economic order.The Doha round is facing the possibility of being suspended,and the United States will emphasize bilateral and regional trade cooperation rather than multilateral trade.Globalization is at a low ebb,as trade protectionism is rising in the developed countries. The exchange rates in the major countries are not stable.Trade conflicts and conflicts among national interests will be fierce.