我国耕地保护政策运行效果分析

Analysis on the Effect of Policies Operation of Cultivated Land Protection in China

耕地保护是关系我国国民经济和社会可持续发展的全局性战略问题,完善的耕地保护政策对于耕地保护有重要作用。因此,在分析我国现行耕地保护政策体系、耕地面积变化及相关因素的基础上,构建我国耕地面积变化驱动力的多元回归模型,并据此分析了1984～1999年期间我国耕地保护政策的运行效果。分析发现:1986年以来的耕地保护政策实施保护了相当于1999年耕地面积0.87%的耕地数量(112.85万ha);1997年以来的耕地保护政策实施保护了相当于1999年耕地面积0.76%的耕地数量(98.47万ha)。研究结果还表明我国的现行耕地保护政策还不够完善,而进一步强化耕地保护政策实施效果的难度较大。就此问题,从整体完善耕地保护政策的角度,探讨进一步增强耕地保护政策实施效果的措施。

Cultivated land protection is tied with the strategies of sustainable social-economic development in China. Based on the analysis of China抯 cultivated land protection policies and factors related to change of cultivated land area,the paper establishes a multiply linear regression model about the effect of China抯 cultivated land protection policies. Moreover, the effect of the policies in 1984-1999 was calculated according to model. The policies reinforced since 1986 have protected 1128.5hm which is 0.87% of total cultivated land in 1999,while the policies reinforced since 1997 protected 984.7hm which is 0.76% of that in 1999. Namely, cultivated land protection policies are very important in process of cultivated land protection. But,the result also shows that it turns more difficult for government to reinforce the effect of the cultivated land protection policies in the next years. Finally, five major suggestions are proposed to reform China抯 cultivated land protection policies.