灰色系统理论在预报应用中的一些问题

Some problem of the grey system theory in the application of forecasting

文章认为灰色GM(1,1)模型的精度与原始数据列的确定有很大关系,对原始数据进行拓扑选择、建立新陈代谢模型可以提高模型的精度,同时讨论了模型可靠性的理论检验与实际情形相悖之处,并通过实例对上述见解进行了论证。

This paper considers that the precision of the grey model GM(1, 1)is greatly concerned with the determination of the primary dada series. If the topologic choice of the primary data is made, and the metabolism of the model established, the precision may be enhanced. It also discusses the controversy between the theoretical examination and the real circumstances of the model's reliability. A case history is given to prove the above viewpoints.