灰色混沌时间序列方法及其应用

Gray-chaos Time Series and Its Application

模型含有混沌特性 ,因此不能对系统的长期演化进行预测 ,但在短期预测中仍有较高精度。定义了一类灰色混沌时间序列 ,使其可以拆分成若干个满足灰色建模的时间序列。根据这一定义 ,对银山铅锌矿尾矿坝浸润线进行了模型与Lyapunov指数的耦合分析。结果表明 ,当观测数据为非等时序列 ,采用灰色混沌时间序列进行分析比较有效 ;计算得到的浸润线最大Lyapunov指数与其演化结果吻合 ,可以用来指导尾矿坝安全管理。

Due to its chaotic characters, it is difficult for a grey model to predict the system's long term evolvement. However, the grey model has a higher precision in short-term prediction. A kind of grey-chaos time sereies is defined to make it possible to divide into a number of time series which can meet the conditions of modeling. According to this definition, an analysis is made for cupling between the model and Lyapunov exponents of the seepage line of Yinshan Lead-zinc mine's tailings dam. The results show that when to data to be observed is unequal interval, it is more effective for the grey-chaos time series to analyse the data. The largest Lyapunov exponent obtained from the sample accords with the true evolvement state of the seepage line. Therefore, the grey-chaos time series can be applied in safety management of the mine's tailings dam.