情报分析中的变量管理——基于结构化分析方法的思考

Variables Management in Intelligence Analysis: Based on the Structured Analysis Method

[目的/意义]预测性情报问题通常包含诸多相互作用的影响变量,识别变量、明确变量间交互作用是分析研判的基础,因此情报分析过程中进行有效的变量管理是提高情报分析质量、为情报用户提供有力支持的重要路径。[方法/过程]文章通过描述性研究、比较分析和例证等方法,明确变量管理在情报分析中的重要作用,并借助结构化分析方法,重塑了情报分析中的变量管理流程和路径。[结果/结论]认为结构化分析方法为情报分析中的变量管理提供了认知框架、操作平台、分析路径、监控渠道以及系统流程,是有效实现变量管理、提高分析质量的重要方法基础。[局限]预测的复杂性使得变量管理只能发挥有限作用,分析失误无法被完全消除。

[Purpose/significance] Predicative intelligence issues generally include multiple interactive influencing variables. Identifying variables and their interaction have to go prior to further analysis. Thus effective variables management in intelligence analysis is a key path for high-quality and supportive analysis to intelligence users. [Method/process]The paper tries to illuminate the key role of variables management in intelligence analysis through methods of descriptive study,comparative analysis and case study,and reconstructs a whole process and path of variables management based on structured analysis techniques. [Result/conclusion] It draws a conclusion that structured analysis method provides a conceptual framework,operative platform,analytic path,supervision channel and systematic process for variables management,which is a critical method to effectively realize variables management and improve analysis quality. [Limitations]Complexity in predication makes variables management impossible to give full play or eliminate analytic failure.