中国经济对奥肯定律的偏离与失业问题研究

Okun's Law and China's Unemployment

奥肯定律作为一个反映实际产出与失业率之间关系的经验规则 ,在实际中得到了良好的印证 ,但是中国经济呈现出与奥肯定律不一致的发展轨迹。本文通过 GNP、GDP与城镇登记失业率建构的模型表明 ,中国总量经济增长与城镇登记失业率之间的关系明显偏离奥肯定律。本文对三次产业分别考虑 ,使用就业人口指数取代传统的失业率指标 ,构造了能够反映中国经济运行的奥肯模式 。

As an empirical rule about the relationship between real output and unemployment rate, Okun's law has been proved across many economies, but China seems to be an exception. This paper points out that there is a significant deviation from Okun's law in China' s case. Through separating data among three sectors and constructing a new index of employment, this paper sets up a revised Okun's law to illustrate China's economic growth, and induce proper policy implications.