中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究:进展与展望

Adaptation research of cryosphere change in China:advances and prospections

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。

The adaptation of cryosphere change is a new research direction in the field of cryosphere science,and a typical representative of the interdisciplinary cross-integration research of natural and social sciences nowadays. The study on the adaptation of cryosphere changes in China, which started in 2007, has experienced a ten-year development. At present, the emphasis of the study has changed from the evaluation of vulnerability into the quantification of impacts of the cryosphere change with the improvement of knowledge level. The content of the study, including impacts, risks, vulnerability and adaptation of cryosphere change, is more perfect and systematic. The study method breaks through the shortcomings of the traditional index system weighting method and realizes the quantification preliminarily. The reasonable combination of research results of impacts, risks,vulnerability and adaptation in cryosphere change makes the adaptation measures of the cryosphere change more targeted. In the future, the existing theoretical system of the cryosphere changes adaptation in China should be expanded, improved and deepened, the coupling model of the cryosphere and the society economy should be constructed in order to scientifically quantify the effects of the change of the whole cryosphere elements, and a new research model involving different stakeholders and scientists should be established to cope with and adapt to the cryosphere changes and their effects.