考虑国家风险的清洁能源跨国输送通道规划方法

Wide-area Interconnection Grid Planning for Clean Power Integration Considering the Effect of Country Risks

在能源革命背景及全球能源资源与负荷分布不均的现状下,对全球可再生能源资源富集区域进行集中开发并跨国跨洲输送是一条值得探索的发展途径。实现跨国输电,相关国家的政治、经济和技术综合水平及国与国之间的友好程度是其关键影响因素,甚至超过了输电通道本身的技术和成本因素而成为一票否决性的条件。本文提出了考虑国家风险的清洁能源跨国跨洲输电通道规划方法。在分析特定规划场景的关键特征基础上,构建了国家风险量化模型、包含国家风险的等效成本模型和以清洁能源最大化消纳为目标的通道扩展模型,并进行模型求解。算例构建了2030年清洁电力的广域电网互联蓝图,并与各国的电网互联计划进行对比,最后对国家风险进行了敏感性分析,验证了规划模型和方法的有效性。

In the context of energy revolution and the situation of asymmetrical distribution of global energy resources and loads, it is worth exploring renewable generation development in wind/solar resources rich area and transmission through nations and continents. The comprehensive level of political, economic and technical as well as the degree of friendship between countries are the key factors and have "one-vote negation" impact on the international transmission, whose degree of importance has even exceeded technical and cost issues of the transmission project. A planning method of international and inter-continental transmission for clean energy is proposed in this paper, in which country risks are taken into account. Based on the analysis of key features of a particular planning scenario, a country risk quantification model, an equivalent cost model that includes country risks and a transmission expansion planning model that aims to maximize the clean energy consumption are established and solved. The case study shows a vision for the interconnection of wide-area power grids for clean power in 2030, and compares it with the current interconnection plans developed by many countries and finally analyzes the sensitivity of country risks, verifying the effectiveness of planning models and methods.