全球能源互联网背景下跨国电力市场长期交易模式的设计与仿真

Design and Simulation for Long-Term Transnational Power Transaction Model in Global Energy Interconnection

在全球能源互联网背景下,各洲大型能源基地的互联使得跨国跨洲电力交易成为可能。然而对跨国互联电力市场交易机制的研究尚未成熟与完备,基于此本文针对跨国交易中存在的电能输送距离长、市场构成复杂、政治因素以及新能源出力不确定性等问题,提出了一种以社会福利最大化为目标的跨国电力市场长期交易模型:通过优化新能源的市场参与比例,合理分摊输电服务费,分析政治因素带来的风险成本等,建立和完善了跨国电力交易年度合约;引入缺电惩罚项对月度电量分配模型进行优化。最后对日本、韩国、朝鲜、蒙古、中国华北和东北地区五个区域组成的东北亚电力市场进行仿真与分析,验证所提出的模型的合理性,为能源在区域间的优化配置提供了理论指导。

Under the background of the global energy interconnection, the possibility of transnational power transaction can be realized through interconnection of large-scale energy bases in different continents. However, transnational power transaction has problems such as long transmission distance, complex market structure, high risk of transaction caused by new energy and political factors, and its mechanism is not mature and complete. So a long term transnational power transaction model with the goal of the social welfare optimization is put forward to deal with these problems. The model establishes and improves annual transaction volume through the optimization of the new energy market participation ratio, the apportionment of the transmission service fee, and the analysis of the political risk cost. And the monthly electricity allocation is optimized by introducing the penalty item of power shortage into the objective function. Finally, the test on the practical Northeast Asia, including China, South Korea, North Korea, Japan and Mongolia, are studied and the simulation results verify the rationality of the proposed mode. The results also show that this model can provide a theoretical guidance for the optimal allocation of energy among regions.