“一带一路”沿线国家间跨境电力贸易的主要影响因素研究

The Determinants of Cross-border Electricity Trade Among Countries Along the Belt and Road Area

在'一带一路'设施联通背景下,中国与'一带一路'沿线国家间的跨境电力贸易日益受到关注。首先分析了电力贸易的价格形成机制及其主要影响因素,其次,利用2001至2014年'一带一路'沿线66个国家(含中国)间跨境电力贸易的数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明,出口国的电力总需求增长显著阻碍了电力贸易的形成,反之,进口国的电力总需求则显著促进电力贸易形成。此外,电力贸易与贸易成本显著负相关,与双边电力需求差异、是否接壤和工业发展水平显著正相关。最后,提出了有助于促进'一带一路'区域电力互联和贸易发展的政策建议。

In the background of facility interconnection of the Belt and Road initiative,cross-border electricity trade along the Belt and Road area has received increasing attention.This paper firstly analyses the price formation mechanism of electricity trade and its main influencing factors.Secondly,it uses the data of cross-border electricity trade among 66 countries(including China)along the Belt and Road area over the period of 2001-2014 to estimate the impact of those factors on electricity trade.The results show that the growth of total electricity demand in exporting countries has significantly hindered the electricity trade whereas the total electricity demand of importing countries has opposite effects.In addition,trade costs are found to be negatively correlated with electricity trade,while bilateral power demand differences,whether bordering and industrial development level are significantly positively correlated with electricity trade.Finally,this paper proposes policy recommendations that help promote the power interconnection and trade development of the Belt and Road area.