考虑多能互补和负荷不确定性的区域综合能源系统优化定容与资产利用效率分析

Optimal Sizing and Asset Utilization Efficiency Analysis of a Distributed Multi-energy System Considering Energy Substitution and Load Uncertainty

电、气、热等多种能源的耦合使得区域综合能源系统能够通过多能互补协同利用,提高运行的灵活性和经济性。通过投资能源供给和转换设备能够提升区域综合能源系统运行灵活性,但其与投资成本、设备利用情况通常是对立的。在充分考虑多能互补和负荷水平不确定性的前提下,对区域综合能源系统进行优化定容和资产利用效率分析。首先,基于能源集线器模型构建了区域综合能源系统的多能互补协调优化模型。考虑在长时间尺度内多能互补的执行及负荷不确定性对资产利用效率的影响,建立了区域综合能源系统设备的双层鲁棒优化定容模型。接着,通过定义与量化多能互补策略所实现的收益,评估其资产利用效率。最后,通过测试案例验证,在多能互补策略的实施与优化定容的共同作用下,区域综合能源系统设备资产利用效率能够维持在较高水平。

The integration of multiple energies,such as electricity,gas,and heat,enables the coordinated operation of a distributed multi-energy system(DMES)to promote flexibility and efficiency.Although vast investments of energy supply and conversion equipment will improve flexibility,the cost will increase simultaneously.This paper discusses optimal sizing and asset utilization consideration energy substitution and load uncertainty.First,based on a typical DMES configuration,the optimal energy substitution strategy is explored via energy hubs.Considering the impacts of energy substitution on asset utilization and load uncertainties in the long term,the optimal sizing of the energy supply and conversion components in the DMES is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem.The asset utilization efficiency is then studied along with the benefits of energy substitutions.Finally,the optimal energy substitution and sizing strategies are validated in a test case,and the results show that the asset utilization efficiency can be maintained at a relatively high level.