世界经济不安情绪加剧 经济下行风险引担忧

Worrying over the downside risks of world economy aggravated by economic insecurity

2018年世界经济均衡程度下降,从同步增长走向分化增长,持有世界经济增长"触顶论"观点的人愈益增多。来自于美国的"三大障碍"和"三个价格"同步走高,加大世界经济和全球金融市场不确定性,世界经济不安情绪加剧,经济扩张势头受阻,但尚未发生反向逆转。2019年世界经济仍存在下行压力。如果"美国优先"和贸易保护主义持续下去,世界经济将更加严峻、艰难,或许加速"明斯基时刻"的到来。

In 2018 the balance of the w orld economy declined,from synchronous grow th to differentiated grow th,and more and more people hold the view of 'top-touching'of w orld economic grow th. The'three obstacles'and 'three prices'from the United States have risen simultaneously,increasing uncertainty in the w orld economy and global financial markets,intensifying w orld economic insecurity and hindering the momentum of economic expansion,but there has not yet been a reversal. There is still dow nw ard pressure on the w orld economy in 2019. If 'America First'and trade protectionism continue,the w orld economic situation w ill be more severe and difficult,perhaps accelerating the arrival of'Minsky moment'.