东北地区气候变化CMIP5模式预估

Climate Projection in Northeast China Based on CMIP5 Data

利用CMIP5的多模式集合资料,从时间变化和空间分布两方面分析了不同情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)中国东北地区未来100年的气候变化。结果显示:3种排放情景下,21世纪东北地区气温和降水呈显著增长趋势,中期和末期增幅较明显,冬季增幅高于其他季节,RCP8.5情景下气温增暖最为显著,RCP4.5次之,RCP2.6最小,随着年代的推移,气温和降水年较差逐渐减小;空间分布显示:3种排放情景下各个时期的增温分布形式基本一致,由南向北逐渐增大,辽宁南部增温幅度最小,最显著地区位于黑龙江大兴安岭;不同情景下气温变化率的分布形势略有不同,但均呈显著增温趋势;3种排放情景下降水距平百分率均为增加趋势,呈由东向西逐渐增大的经向分布特征;不同情景下的降水变化率分布形势相似,呈南大北小特征,辽宁地区增长最为明显,黑龙江西部地区增长相对较小。

Using CMIP5multi-mode collection data,we analyze the climate change under different scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)in Northeast China over the next 100years from time and space distributions.The results show that under three emission scenarios,the temperature and precipitation during the 21st Century in Northeast China show a significant growth trend;at the medium and late stages,there is obvious increase with the increase higher in winter than in other seasons;under the RCP8.5scenario,the warming is most significant,RCP4.5 follows,RCP2.6 the least;over years,the annual ranges of temperature and precipitation anomalies decreased and their spatial distributions show that the temperature increase distributions in various periods are basically consistent,gradually increasing from south to north;the warming is the smallest in the southern Liaoning and the most notable in the Daxing' anling area;the distributions of temperature change rates under different scenarios are slightly different,with significant warming trends;the precipitation anomaly percentage has an increasing trend,with a meridional distribution of gradual increase from east to west;the rates of precipitation change are similar,presenting the characteristics of greater in South and smaller in north;the growth is most obvious in Liaoning,and relatively small in the western Heilongjiang.