基于最大熵模型的中国血吸虫病传播风险评估

Transmission Risk Assessment of Schistosomiasisin China Based on Maximum Entropy Model

气候生态因子是影响媒介传播性疾病流行风险的重要环境因素。本研究根据文献调研选取影响中国血吸虫病传播风险的潜在气候生态因子,基于各潜在因子的作用大小确定影响中国血吸虫病传播风险的主导因子,发展主导气候生态因子-血吸虫病关系的最大熵模型并评价其对中国区域血吸虫病传播风险的模拟效果。结果表明:影响中国血吸虫病传播风险的气候生态因子有年降水量、最暖月平均气温、稳定通过10℃持续日数和增强型植被指数(EVI),其累积贡献率为研究因子总贡献的98.6%;最大熵模型能较好地揭示中国血吸虫病传播风险与主导气候生态因子关系,其受试者特征曲线(ROC)评价结果为'非常好'(AUC为0.917);模型模拟的中国血吸虫病传播中高风险区位于江苏南部、浙江北部、广西中部、广东北部、云南北部、四川中部及湖北东部、湖南东北部、安徽中部、江西北部等地。研究结果对气候环境影响下中国血吸虫传播风险评估和疾病预防宏观对策制定具有工具价值和参考意义。

Climatic and ecological factors have significant impacts on vector-borne diseases.The potential climatic and ecological factors affecting transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China are selected based on previous research results,and then the dominant factors are determined by contribution percentages to the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China.At last,the relation model between Schistosomiasis and dominant factors based on MaxEnt to model the transmission risk of Schistosomiasisin China is developed and its modelling results are assessed as well.The results show that the dominant climatic and ecological factors affecting the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China are annual precipitation,mean temperature of the warmest month,the number of days with temperature over 10℃and enhanced vegetation index,and the accumulated contribution percentage account for 98.6%of the used potential factors.According to the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve,Area Under Curve(AUC)is0.917;i.e.,the MaxEnt model based on dominant factors affecting Schistosomiasis can model the transmission risk in China'very good'.The MaxEnt model results show that the medium and high transmission risk zone of Schistosomiasis in China are located in Southern Jiangsu,Northern Zhejiang,Central Guangxi,Northern Guangdong,Northern Yunnan,Central Sichuan and Eastern Hubei,Northeastern Hunan,Central Anhui and Northern Jiangxi,etc.In conclusion,MaxEnt can model well the transmission risk of Schistosomiasisin China under the impact of climatic and ecological factors,which can provide a tool to assess the impact of climate change on the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China and reference to make preventive measures.