2013年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定

Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2013

本文以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的最佳路径集为依据,对2013年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)定位、路径和强度预报精度进行了评定,并对部分全球和区域模式在路径和强度预报中存在的系统性偏差进行了分析,结果表明:2013年定位总平均误差为21.7 km,比往年略偏小。国内各省(自治区)主观预报方法路径预报平均误差为80.2 km(24 h)、143.3 km(48 h)和221.7 km(72 h),与2012年同比分别降低了13.9%、13.4%和20.9%,中央气象台24 h路径预报误差首次低于90 km。全球和区域模式的路径预报性能稳步提升,并表现出一定的系统性偏差。统计预报方法的强度预报整体性能仍然领先于数值模式,而在数值模式中,区域模式的强度预报性能则略优于全球模式。部分全球和区域模式在强度预报中也存在着系统性偏差。各主观方法对台风温比亚(1306)、台风尤特(1311)、台风潭美(1312)和台风菲特(1323)的24 h登陆点预报效果较好,而对台风西马仑(1308)的24 h登陆点预报不是十分理想。

Operational positioning,track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs)over west-ern North Pacific in 2013 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI’s Best-track dataset.Meanwhile,the systematic biases of both global and regional models in track and intensity forecasts are analyzed.The re-sults show that the performance of TC positioning is a little better than that in previous years,with an av-erage error by all methods is 21.7 km.The average track forecast errors by the subjective methods of each province or autonomous regions are 80.2 km (24 h),143.3 km (48 h)and 221.7 km (72 h),which are re-duced by 13.9%,13.4% and 20.9% compared to those in 2012.And the 24 h track forecast error of Na-tional Meteorological Centre (NMC)of CMA is less than 90 km for the first time.Global and regional models have steady improvement in the performance of track forecast,however,the models also display specific systematic biases.The overall performance of statistical forecast method is still better than numer-ical prediction method in intensity forecast.In the numerical prediction methods,the performance of re-gional models is slightly better than global models.Some global and regional models also have systematic biases in intensity prediction.The subjective methods predict well the 24 h landfall location of Typhoon 1308 “Cimaron”,but are not so good for Typhoon 1306 “Rumbia”,Typhoon 1311 “Utor”,Typhoon 1312 “Trami”and Typhoon 1323 “Fitow”.