企业退休职工养老金模型

The Model of Social Security Pension

本文讨论了目前我国养老保险体制改革的相关问题。首先,通过分析年工资增长趋势,对其数据进行回归分析,构造出年工资的Logistic模型,并预测出职工未来年份的年平均年工资;其次,构造养老金替代率模型,并得到多种情况下的替代率;再次,建立养老金缺口模型,用来分析养老基金缺口情况以及达到平衡时领取养老金的年数;最后,分析得出影响养老金替代率和收支平衡的4个因素,即社会统筹基金的缴费比例、基金收益率、退休年龄和开始缴纳养老保险的年龄,对其进行敏感性分析,并提出一些相应的改进建议。

This paper discusses some problems of the reform of pension system.First of all,analyzing the trends of wage growth and using the date to do regression,we establish the wage-Logistic model,which is used for predicting the future annual average wage.Secondly,the model of replacement rate of pension is set up,and calculated several replacement rates.Thirdly,we establish the model of pension deficit to analyse the deficit of pension and the years of reaching the balance of payment pension.Finally,we conclude four factors affecting replacement rate of pension and the balance of pension payment,which are the payment rate of social planning pension,the rate of pension fund,the beginning paying pension age and retirement age.According to the result of sensitivity analysis,we put forward suggestions for improvement.