关于深圳人口和病床需求的预测

Research on Shenzhen's Population and Medical Bed Needs Prediction

医疗床位需求主要取决于人口总量和结构,而人口总量依赖于产业经济结构和经济总量,人口结构依赖于非户籍人口和户籍政策。深圳市经济发展受产业结构、经济规模、人口密度、区域面积等因素限制,根据这一特点,首先基于Logistic规律建立了分产业预测模型,然后基于人口发展与生产总值的关联建立了常住人口预测模型,最后依据相关数据分别建立了人口结构、医疗病床需求相关模型。预测结果与当地规划目标比较,显示了结果的相对合理性,这在某种程度上验证了模型的正确性。

Medical beds requirement depends on total number and structure of local population,but the local population size depends on the structure of industrial economy and its value,and population structure depends on local government residence policy.Local economic development is limited by industrial structure,values,population density,regional area,etc.Based on these features,an industrial value prediction model is first constructed for industrial values,then another model to predict permanent population is also established based on the relationship between population and industrial value,and finally some other models are constructed separately to predict population structure,medical bed needs using corresponding statistical and data.Comparing predictive results with local planning objects,shows that the reasonability of results and validity of models.