基于人体营养健康角度的中国果蔬发展建模

Fruit and Vegetable Development Strategy Model based on People's Nutrition and Health in China

我国食物生产在一定程度上依然不能适应营养需求,居民营养不足与过剩并存。为了解决这个问题,本文将数据范围定位在常见的果蔬品种上,对其所含营养成分进行主成分分析和聚类,选择主要的蔬菜水果。利用损耗率和马尔可夫链,用线性回归的方法,通过对以往数据的分析,构建模型预测果蔬的消费量。进一步地,构建线性最优化模型来确定不同经济区域、不同季度的主要蔬菜水果的最合理消费量和购买成本。基于居民人体的营养均衡、购买成本、种植者收益、进出口贸易以及土地面积等多方面因素的考虑,构建多目标规划模型,寻找最优的产量和消费量。从种植产量、价格、国民营养摄入等方面向有关部门提出合理化建议。

Chinese food production can hardly meet the nutritional requirements,resulting in the coexistence of denutrition and overnutrition.In order to solve this problem,we use principal component analysis and cluster analysis to classify the nutritional components of some popular vegetables and fruits.By using Markov chain and linear regression analysis,and on the basis of analyzing data from the past,we propose a mathematical model to predict the fruit and vegetable consumptions in the future.Moreover,a linear programming model is built to determine the optimal fruit and vegetable consumptions and costs.Based on the nutritional balance,purchasing costs,growers' income,import and export transactions and land area,a multi-objective programming model is constructed in order to find the optimal production quantity and optimal consumption.In the end,we provide some suggestions to the authorities about planting quantity,pricing,nutrient intake,and so on.