国家的可持续发展分析

Analysis on the Sustainable Development of a Country

以社会、经济、环境与资源和制度作为基础指标,建立了评价国家可持续发展的综合指标体系。首先,利用熵值法计算各基础指标值,并将每个国家的基础指标值画在同一轴线的雷达图上,直观描述和比较各个国家目前的可持续发展情况。同时,以4个基础指标值为顶点的四边形面积大小作为一个国家可持续发展的综合指数。通过对10个国家的分析,验证了模型的有效性。其次,综合考虑4个基础指标,建立了4维静态趋势分析的优化模型,用以描述每个国家可持续发展程度的变化过程及相关政策与援助对可持续发展指标的影响。最后,基于雷达图模型的分析,选取埃塞俄比亚作为研究对象,借助4维静态趋势分析模型,制定了埃塞俄比亚未来20年的发展规划,并通过雷达图模型验证了规划的有效性,同时对模型的优势与不足进行评述。

In this paper,using society,economy,environment and institution as the basic indices,a comprehensive index system is established to evaluate the sustainability of a country.Firstly,four base index values are calculated by the entropy method.Then the four base index values of each country are drawn on the same axis of a radar figure,which can intuitively describe and compare the sustainability of various countries at present.At the same time,the area of the quadrangular with the four basic indices as its apex is used as a composite index of sustainability of a country.The analysis results of 10 countries prove the effectiveness of the model.Secondly,considering the four basic indices,a four-dimensional static trend analysis optimization model is established to describe the change of each country in the sustainable development process,as well as the effects of relevant policies and assistance on the sustainable development indicators.In addition,based on the result of the radar figure model,we choose Ethiopia as an example and a strategy of 20-year sustainable development plan is proposed,based on the four-dimensional static trend model.Moreover,the radar figure shows the effectiveness of the plan.Finally,the advantages and disadvantages of the paper are analyzed.