摘要
手足口病是严重危害儿童健康的一种急性传染病。本文利用一个离散数学模型研究了手足口病的传播,给出了基本再生数的定义,讨论了平衡点的存在性与稳定性。基于2008-2013年全国法定传染病报告数据与陕西省每月公布的手足口病数据,将模型中的染病者按年龄划分组,得到一个具有年龄结构的离散模型,估计了2015年每月陕西省0~5岁儿童中手足口病患者的数量。
The hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)is an acute infectious disease which seriously endangers the health of children.In this paper,a discrete mathematical model for studying the transmission of HFMD was estabished.The basic reproduction number of this model was given and the existence and stability of the equilibrium points were discussed as well.Based on the HFMD data of national legal infectious disease report in Shaanxi Province published monthly from 2008 to 2012,we divided the infectious individuals according to their ages,obtained a discrete model with age-structure,and estimated the monthly number of children who are aged 0~5and infect HFMD in Shaanxi province in 2015.
出处
《数学建模及其应用》
2016年第1期49-53,68,共6页
Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications
基金
国家级大学生创业创新训练项目(201410708041)
陕西省自然科学基金(2014JQ1025)
关键词
离散数学模型
手足口病
基本再生数
稳定性
discrete mathematical model
the foot-hand-mouth disease
basic reproduction number
stability
