摘要
本文验证了飞机的起飞和到达时间服从泊松分布,延误时间符合指数分布。通过建立航班延误动态排队模型和对机场数据的仿真分析,给出航班延误的主要因素,建立了基于时间序列的延误预测模型。采用此模型计算,给出使得总延误时间、延误成本和延误人数达到最小化的3个方案及航班延误的治理途径。
In this paper we verify that the departure and arrival time of the planes follow the Poisson distribution,and the delay time follows the exponential distribution.By establishing the dynamic model of flight delays and simulation analysis of the data,the major factors in flight delays are given and the delay prediction based on time series model is established.We use this model to calculate and establish three programs in order to minimize the total delay time,delay costs and the number of people being delayed.Meanwhile,some control strategies of flight delays are also provided.
出处
《数学建模及其应用》
2016年第1期60-68,共9页
Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications
关键词
航班延误
动态排队
时间序列预测
治理途径
flight delay
dynamic queue
time series forecasting
control strategies
