2003年上半年铅市场评述及下半年市场预测

A review of lead market in the first half year of 2003 and forecast for its market in the second half year

文章回顾了今年上半年国内外铅市场概况,并对下半年铅市场进行了展望。上半年全球精铅产量下降、消费回升,LME铅价底部逐步提高。下半年全球精铅消费将较大幅度回升,精铅供应将出现短缺,LME铅价将彻底摆脱410～450美元/t的底部区间,国内精铅产量、消费及出口均将增长,价格将随LME铅价走高而小幅上升。

In this paper, a sketch of lead markets both at home and abroad in the first half year of 2003 is reviewed, and also its prospects of the lead markets in its second half year are presented. In the first half year, the output of world refined lead was decreased in the course of recovery of its consumptions, and floor price of LME lead price range was gradually on the increase. The authors deemed that the world consumphions of refined lead would be rising to a relatively big margin, and market supply of refined lead would be in shortage, LME lead prices would get rid of the lower level of 410 -450 USD/t, domestic outputs, consumptions, and exports of refined lead would all be on the increase and lead prices would be going higher to a small extent in the wake of the rising of LME lead prices.