灰色系统与时序组合模型在高层建筑沉降预测中的应用

Application of the combinatory model of gray system and TSA to forecast the subsidence of high building

将高层建筑沉降监测数据视为具有确定性趋势的非平稳时间序列,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型提取其中的趋势项,用AR(n)模型表示随机残差项,利用灰色 时序组合模型进行沉降预测.算例结果表明,该组合模型具有较高的预测精度,是一种简单、实用的高层建筑沉降预测方法.

The data of the subsidence of high buildings can be treated as unstable time sequence with predictable trend, after the GM(1,1) model is converted into GMTSA one——a combinatory model, and then the subsidence can be predicted. The results show that this new model works well, it is a useful and easy way to predict the subsidence of high buildings.