潘家口水库枯水期月径流预报

Monthly Discharge Forecasting of Panjiakou Reservoir During Drought Period

在分析研究流域气候特征及枯季径流来水规律的基础上,用水文气象方法和水文方法分别建立了枯水期月径流预报模型。水文气象方法是先挑选出与预报对象关系最好的气象因子作为预报因子,据此建立预报模型和预报集成模型。水文方法是利用水文序列资料建立自回归模型和多元递推模型。用实测资料对预报模型进行了验证,结果表明:预报精度令人满意。

The climate characteristics and the incoming flow distribution law during drought period were analyzed in research basin. The hydrometeoro-logical and hydrological monthly discharge forecasting models are established. The hydrometeorological method is that the factors closely related with forecasting object are selected at first, afterwards the forecasting and forecasting integration models are established. The hydrological method is using the hydrological series data to establish the autoregressive and multivariate recurrence models. The models have been tested using the observational data and forecasting results are satisfactory.