配电系统可靠性评估的改进区间分析方法

ANIMPROVED INTERVAL METHOD APPLIED TO LARGE SCALE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION

提出了一系列区间计算的反演公式 ,建立了基于Markov过程的区间可靠性分析模型 ,实现了配电系统可靠性的改进区间分析方法及软件。配电系统可靠性区间算法可以同时考虑所有元件可靠性参数的不确定性所带来的影响 ,只需要 1次计算即可求解反映参数变化影响的区间可靠性指标 ;同时 ,该算法也可作为一种全新的灵敏度算法。该算法在计算速度上优于MonteCarlo法 。

Five deconvolution formulae are deduced in order to obtain sharp bounds of the results of reliability studies. Deconvolution formulae overcome the dependency problem and form the theoretical basis for applying interval analysis to power system reliability assessment. Interval reliability models of Markov systems and an interval-analysis-based reliability evaluation method are proposed. A software package DSIR2002 (interval analysis based distribution system reliability evaluation software) with proprietary copyright has been developed. Extensive investigations on IEEE RBTS test system and a 573-bus distribution system demonstrate that the developed software is valid and effective. All results have shown that the interval-analysis-based approach can serve as a more efficient and faster reliability assessment tool than Monte Carlo simulation and can provide, in an unprecedented flexible manner, much more useful information than traditional sensitivity analysis. It provides a viable and easy-to-use tool for the distribution system planning, engineering and operations.