东亚产业内贸易发展趋势的实证研究——对发展我国与东亚产业内贸易的政策思考

An Empirical Study on the Development Trend of Intra-industry Trades in East Asia——Proposals on the Development of Sino-East Asia Intra-industry Trades

本文运用Grubel-Lloyd产业内贸易指数与修正的Glick-Rose出口相似性指数对东亚区域内自80年代中期以来到90年末之间的贸易资料①进行了统计和分析,证实了这一地区确实存在产业内贸易比重提高的趋势。研究表明,东亚产业结构由垂直向水平的整体性演进态势与东亚各经济体人均GDP的提高是促成这一趋势的主要原因。在此基础上,本文还分析了制约我国与东亚发展产业内贸易的因素,并提出了相应的政策建议。

By employing the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade index and the revised Glick-Rose export similarity index to analyze the trade data of each area in East Asia from the mid-1980s to the end of 1990s, the paper testifies the existence of the trend of increasing intra-industry trades in East Asia. The study shows that the whole evolution trend of industrial structure changing from vertical international labor-division to a horizontal one might mainly attribute to the increase of per capita GDP of each economy in east Asia. Finally, the paper studies the factors constraining in the development of intra-industry trade between China and other East-Asian countries(areas), and then it puts forward some corresponding policy proposals.