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长春市人口综合调控对策研究

Researches on comprehensive controlling measures for the population in Changchun City.
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摘要 正确预测和掌握人口的发展规律对于合理制定人口政策、控制人口增长、保持社会稳定都具有十分重要的意义。应用系统动力学的原理和方法 ,对长春市的人口进行了动态仿真研究 ,认为长春市的人口增长以机械增长为主。综合考虑了人口的出生率、死亡率、人口政策、环境污染、经济发展水平、育龄妇女生育指数等对人口有重要影响的几个因子 ,对人口系统的预测应重点放在控制额定迁入率、转变经济增长方式。 It's very important to master the law of population. This paper predicts the population's dynamic variety of Changchun City by system dynamic mode. It draws a conclusion that immigrant population made a great contribution to increasing of Changchun City's population.Furthermore,the immigrant rate,the increasing rate of employment post,the house increasing rate and bearing index of women are sensitive variables which affect the population greatly.By controlling these variables,the methods which the emphases include controlling immigrant rate's transforming economic development mode's, improving work efficiency and adjusting the structure of labour are put forward. The progress trend of the population system under these countermeasures was also simulated.
出处 《生态学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2003年第4期107-110,共4页 Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金 长春市政府资助项目 东北师范大学校青年基金资助项目(111441)
关键词 长春市 人口调控 系统动力学 Changchun City, population control,system dynamics.
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