昆仑山口西地震后中国大陆未来地震形势研究

Research on the future earthquake situation of China mainland after the earthquake of the West of the Kunlun Mountain pass

基于动力学背景和强震活动格局,从多个角度研究了中国大陆及其各次级块体的强震活动趋势,结果表明:2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8 1级地震并不是第五个强震轮回的结束地震,中国大陆特别是青藏块体今后1～3年还将继续发生7级以上地震以进行应力场调整。青藏川交界—四川中部地区是未来最有可能发生7级大震的危险区。

On the basis of the dynamics background and the activity situation of strong earthquakes, we researches on the active trend of strong earthquakes of China mainland and its each subordinate land blocks in many angles. The results show that the earthquake of the West of the Kunlun Mountain pass with magnitude 81 on November 14, 2001 is not the last earthquake of the fifth strong earthquake recurrence. In future one to three years, a few earthquakes with M≥70 in China mainland, especially in Qingzang land block, will occur to adjust the regional stress field. The area from the border of Qinghai, Xizang and Sichuan to the middle of Sichuan is a key risk area where an earthquake with M 70 is likely to occur.