珠江三角洲地区震害伤亡预测及预防对策

Prediction of earthquake casualty and preventative countermeasure in the Pearl River Delta Area

以1995年珠江三角洲地区震害预测为基础,考虑近几年人口、建筑物的变化,综合给出了该区未来地震可能造成的人员伤亡情况。基于今后十年该区将处于较低的地震活动水平的估计,结合该区经济、地理条件和近几年世界上几次强震中人员伤亡的经验和教训,认为采取以下对策将大大减少未来地震可能造成的伤亡:①强化抗震设防要求,严格遵守抗震设计规范,提高建筑物的质量,杜绝劣质工程;②提高社会公众对于地震事件的心理承受能力;③建立完善的地震应急管理和救助机构。

Based on the evaluation of earthquake disaster in the Pearl River Delta Area in 1995 and considered on the variation of population and buildings in recent years, we synthetically estimate the casualties in future earthquake. According to the estimation of low seismicity in future ten years, considering to the economic and geographical condition in this area and the experiences and lesson of casualties in several strong shocks in the world, we think the following countermeasures should be taken to reduce casualty: ①Strengthen the antiseismic defense requirement and enforce the seismic design resistant code to enhance building's quality and put the inferior project to end; ②increase people mental bearing ability for earthquake events; ③constitute the perfect emergency manage and salvation agency for earthquake event.