北京市结核病发病趋势研究

Trends of tuberculosis incidence in Beijing

目的 分析北京市涂阳肺结核发病率的变化趋势及其原因。方法 通过比较分析 1980—2 0 0 2年期间北京市人群的涂阳肺结核发病率和结核感染率变化特征、DOTS实施情况以及三者间的关联性 ,总结涂阳发病率变化趋势的内在原因。结果 1980— 2 0 0 2年间北京地区人群涂阳肺结核发病率显著下降 ;低年龄组 (30岁以下 )发病率的明显下降是引起这种变化趋势的主要原因 ;低年龄组涂阳肺结核发病率的明显下降与结核感染率的显著降低密切相关 ;DOTS策略通过控制结核传染源 ,显著降低了低年龄组结核感染率和发病率 ,但对已感染者发病率的影响不明显。结论 北京市的涂阳肺结核发病率短期内不会发生明显下降。

Objective To study the evolutive trend of the sputum positive tuberculosis incidence in Beijing.Methods To summarize the evolutive trend and its main explanations through analyzing the epidemical characteristics of sputum positive tuberculosis incidence and tuberculous infection, the implement of DOTS strategy, and the relationship among them in Beijing in 1980—2002.Results The sputum positive tuberculosis incidence had dropped significantly in 1980—2002; and the incidence dropping resulted mainly from notable declining of the incidence in low age groups (30 below people); the tuberculous infection descending in low age groups had caused the incidence declining; by controlling the infection sources, DOTS strategy had significantly reduced the tuberculous infection and tuberculosis incidence in low age groups, but had little effect on the infected people.Conclusion The sputum positive tuberculosis incidence in Beijing wouldn't decline notably in near future.