油气勘探经济评价新方法的研究——实物期权法

Research of A New Method for Economic Evaluation of Oil-gas Exploration——Real Options

本文阐述了实物期权法的原理、特点和定价模型,分析了传统经济评价方法———净现值法在油气勘探项目经济评价中应用的局限性,探讨了新的经济评价方法:实物期权法及其适用性。通过修正后的NPV法则,提出油气勘探项目经济评价的NPV法所忽略的期权价值,以及由此所导致项目价值低估、决策者错误判断项目可行性的问题。

The paper introduces the theorem, the characters and the pricing model of Real options method. Then in the economic evaluation of real oil-gas exploration, we analyze the limitation of the traditional net present value (NPV) method. The method :Real options ,which fitting the oil-gas exploration, becomes our choice. With the rule of Option Adjusted NPV, we get a conclusion that NPV method makes decision-makers ignore the options' value and take a wrong decision.