未来20年中国原油供需预测及对策分析

石油作为重要的战略物质在国家安全与国民经济发展中占有举足轻重的地位。针对2020年我国国民经济翻两番这一宏伟目标,文中对2010～2020年我国原油的需求量进行了测算,并对2010～2020年我国国内原油产量进行了预测,通过气代油的实施,至2010年我国原油缺口近1亿t,2020年缺口1.6亿t。为缓解石油缺口扩大,坚持开源与节流并重,有必要实施一些战略措施。这些措施包括节能战略,逐步降低石油消费与GDP之比;立足国内石油勘探,产量争取达到2亿t;拓展企业海外勘探,实现多元化战略;优化能源消费结构,加快天然气的利用。

Being as an important strategic material, oil plays a critical role in national security and economy.Targeted at China to quadruple the GDP of the year 2000 by 2020, this article forecasts China's supply and demand for oil from 2010 to 2020, and also the domestic oil output in this period. Although a measure of oil substituted by gas is implemented, there are still about 100 million tons oil in 2010, and about 160 million tons oil in 2020 in short supply. To narrow down its differentials between oil supply and demand, we should stick to giving equal emphasis to oil development and conservation. It is necessary to implement some of strategic measures, including energy conservation, gradually reducing the ratio of oil consumption to GDP, putting the focus on domestic resource exploitation so as to strive to make oil output reach 200 million tons, making the enterprises to explore the overseas oil resources, implementing the multi-strategy, optimizing energy consumption structure, and increasing the utilization of natural gas.