我国积极财政政策风险实证分析

Positively Analyzing the Risk of Proactive Fiscal Policy in China

本文从宏观经济运行和财政运行两个方面对我国积极财政政策的风险问题进行实证分析。基本结论是 :(1)积极财政政策在一定程度上实现了部分预期目标 ,实施该政策要比不实施该政策要好。如果企图通过一直实施该政策来实现预期目标 ,则财政风险是存在的 ;(2 )我国国债在总量上不存在风险问题 ,财政风险主要存在于结构上。

This article analyze positively the risk problem of the proactive fiscal policy in two aspects, macroeconomic function and fiscal function. The basic conclusions are, (1) the proactive fiscal policy achieves some anticipative goals to a certain extent, it is better to carry out the policy than not to carry out it. If the government attempts to achieve its desired goals by implementing the policy at all times, we think there will be risks. (2)there is no risk in the gross of national debt, fiscal risk mainly consists in the structure.