利用Keetch-Byram干旱指数预测森林火险

Using Keetch-Byram Drought Index to Forecast Fire Danger Rating

由于KB干旱指数预测森林火险需要输入的气象因子只有每日最高温度、相对湿度和日降雨量,这在我国大部分地区都可满足要求。该文介绍了KB干旱指数的原理与应用方法,并根据气象资料分析了广州地区2000～2001年火险期内森林火险情况。结果表明KB干旱指数可以用来进行森林火险的预报,预报方法简单,与实际情况比较贴近。与目前广东省采用的火险预报结果相比,这一方法的预报结果3级和4级火险范围更宽。这一干旱指数作为基层森林防火部门的一种早期火险预报工具采用。

To compute the Keetch-Byram Drought Index only requires three variables, which are the intraday maximum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. This is the major advantage of the KBDI due to the data can be easy gained in local fire agency. The paper introduces the theory and application method of the drought index. Meanwhile, fire danger analysis has been done for Guangzhou district in 2001-2002 fire seasons. The results indicate that the drought index can be used to forecast the fire danger. Compared with the results of the current fire danger rating system of Guandong province, the results of KBDI have more third and fourth fire danger rating days. It can be concluded that the drought index can be used in local fire agency for early warning in forestry.