多层次多目标模糊优选模型在水安全评价中的应用

MULTI-OBJECTIVE AND MULTILEVEL FUZZY OPTIMIZATION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN WATER SECURITY EVALUATION

在对水安全概念充分理解的基础上 ,利用多层次多目标决策和模糊优选理论 ,建立了区域水安全评价的模糊优选模型。由于水安全包括的内容有水供需矛盾、生态环境、粮食安全、饮用水安全、控制灾害、赋予水价值和水资源管理等方面 ,而且各方面的评价指标又具有层次结构 ,这就使得采用多层次多目标模糊优选理论对区域水安全进行评价较为合适。在对各评价指标的权重确定中 ,该文采用了客观赋权法—熵值法 ,它的优点是最大程度地利用了评价方案的目标值或属性值来计算各目标的权系数 ,更能够在方案比较中显示出指标的差异。最后该文结合具有层次结构的水安全评价指标体系和所建立的模型对我国部分省级行政区 (山西、黑龙江、江苏、河南、广西、云南和陕西 )的水安全状况进行了评价。结果表明 :参与评价的各地区水安全形势从好到坏的排序是云南、广西、江苏、黑龙江、河南、山西和陕西 。

On the basis of comprehensive understanding of the concept of water security, fuzzy optimization model for evaluation of regional water security is established upon multi objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization theory. Since the concept of water security involves in various factors, such as imbalance of water supply and demand, ecological environment, food security, drinking water security, calamity control, water value pricing and water resources management, in addition, the evaluation index system has hierarchical structure, the multi objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization theory is reasonable to evaluate regional water security. In this paper, the entropy method is adopted to confirm the weight of each index, the virtue of which is full use of the value of each index in counting its weight and which makes difference between each index revealed in schemes comparison. With the combination of hierarchical evaluation index system of water security and the model established above, some provincial water security are evaluated and the satisfied order was obtained. The provinces in regard to water security from good to poor in sequence are: Yunnan province, Guangxi zhuang autonomy region, Jiangsu province, Heilongjiang province, Henan province, Shanxi province and Shaanxi province, which accord with the actual situation of each region.