摘要
水资源是干旱、半干旱地区社会经济发展和生态环境保护的关键制约因素 ,水资源承载力的分析计算和评价是干旱、半干旱地区寻求区域可持续发展道路的重要依据。该文探讨了水资源承载力状况的评价方法 ,建立了水资源承载力评价指标体系 ,对各评价指标的可承载极限临界值和理想值进行了界定 ,建立了水资源承载力模糊综合评判模型 ,并运用之对西北地区现状年及未来 1 0a、2 0a、5 0a不同发展情景方案下的水资源承载状况进行了评价。模型预测结果表明 ,通过生态环境治理、节水技术进步和产业结构调整等综合措施 ,未来各年段西北地区水资源承载力状况将逐步改善 ,其中以采用A1 +B2 +C2发展情景方案将使水资源承载状况综合效果最佳 ,节约用水、降低水资源开发利用率 。
As a principle index of water resources security, the measurement of water resources carrying capacity is an important guidance to the sustainable development of arid and semiarid areas. After the index system of water resources carrying capacity and their marginal values in critical and ideal situation has been confirmed, the model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established to evaluate the situation of water resources carrying capacity of different policy scenarios of northwest China at present and within 10,20 and 50 years, respectively. The prediction result of the model indicates that the situation of water resources carrying capacity of northwest China will be improved gradually in the future and the A1+B2+C2 scenario is better than that of the other three scenarios, while reducing the proportion of water utilization of social economy, enhancing the efficiency of water use and controlling the rate of population growth will be the key factors.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期43-48,共6页
Resources Science
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程项目课题"西北干旱区水循环与水资源承载力研究"(编号 :KZCX1 0 9 0 2 1
KZCX1 100 3 )
中国科学院"百人计划"项目
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:5 0 2 790 49)
关键词
西北地区
水资源
承载力
预测
评价
Water resources carrying capacity
Multi objective scenario analysis
Index system
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
