堤防结构风险分析理论及其应用

Theory of structure risk analysis for levee and its application

结合堤防安全运行和管理的实际,给出基于可靠性理论的考虑边坡稳定和渗透稳定的风险评价模型及其求解方法,此模型已应用于长江干堤部分堤段的风险评价系统中。本文简要介绍系统的数据查询与图形显示等主要功能,可对全堤段堤防工程存在的险情类别进行预测。方法的应用有助于传统经验型的堤防安全评价和管理方法向预测型的风险管理体系的转变。

Based on traditional deterministic method and probability method a model for safety evaluation of sliding stability and seepage stability was developed.The Monte Carlo simulation was applied to solve the reliability problem.A section of dike in Yangtze River was taken as an example to demonstrate the application of this model.The potential failure modes can be predicted based on the computation result of multiple evaluation indexes.Moreover,the software written in VB was developed which is an easytouse and interactive computer program.The main features of data query and graphical output were described.This application of this model is helpful to establish a risk assessment method for forecasting potential danger of levee.