摘要
对电力系统负荷的分区分布预测方法进行探讨。利用系统论中的整体与个体的关系,采用系统动力学建模的方法对各个分区建立统一的预测模型,并根据实际情况对预测模型进行修改,体现出个体间的差异。利用预测结果获得分配因子,对系统的总量预测结果进行分配,获得分区的预测结果。然后采用用地仿真法,建立负荷分布的运输模型,通过求解模型获得负荷的具体分布情况,通过自上而下的负荷细分,获得具体的负荷增长情况。这种预测结果对变电站的布点以及具体线路的规划具有重要的指导作用。
This paper is the second part of the paper on spatial load forecasting in the planning with its first part publishedin last issue. As the individual in the whole system, there are some sameness and difference. The general model is erected toforecast the load of most subareas, but for some special place, the special model is also used. Then, the transportation modelis introduced into the spatial load forecasting. After the model is solved, the distributions of the load in the area are shownin a figure. The result can instruct the decision of the address of transformer substations and lines.
