摘要
文章对近年来中国物价水平下降的现象进行了分析 ,试图根据经济理论和可利用的经验数据说明 ,1 996— 1 999年的物价水平下降 ,主要是由于“信贷萎缩”、需求增长率下降所引起的 ,伴随着投资增长率的下降 ,属于典型意义上的通货紧缩 ;而 2 0 0 1年以来出现的物价下降、投资增长率提高的现象 ,需要用生产率提高、成本下降的因素来加以解释 ,属于“有效降价” ,与西方经济在 1 8— 1 9世纪工业革命和资本主义发展初期的低物价、高增长具有相似之处。文章还对相应的政策问题进行了分析。
The paper is an effort to establish some hypotheses on the causes of the price-falling in recent years in Chinese economy. Based on theoretical analyses and preliminary statistical support, the paper points out that , the price-falling accompanied with the lower growth of investment GDP during 1997—1999 was mainly caused by the credit-crunch and was a kind of typical deflation; but the price-falling accompanied with the increasing investment and high growth of GDP during 2000—2002 should be explained by the efficiency improvement and decreasing costs of production and should be termed as “efficiency price-falling', which shared some similarities with the price movements in early stage of Industry Revolution and capitalism in 19th century's Europe.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第7期3-9,43,共8页
Economic Research Journal
