中国货币政策与股票市场的关系

Monetary Policy and Stock Market in China

本文提出的综合理论框架全面分析描述了以稳定物价水平、促进国民经济持续增长为目的的货币政策与股票市场的关系 ,着重对中央银行干预股票市场的必要性和有效性进行理论分析和实证检验。本文应用的动态滚动式的计量检验方法适应中国经济体制不断调整的特征 ,不但可以完成我们的理论分析 ,更可以检测中央银行对股票市场干预的机制及干预的有效性 ,从而分析进一步的政策含义 ,为中央银行的货币政策制订和预期效果提供一个前瞻性的预测分析框架。

This paper develops a comprehensive framework to analyze the relationship of monetary policy and stock market.We focus on the necessity and efficiency of central bank intervention in the stock market in China.We applied rolling VAR estimation and augmented VAR Granger causality testing technique to capture the frequent structural changes in China due to her gradual economic and financial reforms.It provides a new analytical framework for the central bank's monetary policy design and its forecasting practice.