基于Monte Carlo网络的进度风险分析

Schedule Risk Analysis Based on Monte Carlo Network

由于现代项目的大型化和项目复杂性的不断增加,如何对项目的进度进行正确的预测和合理的规划已经受到越来越多的关注,传统的CPM/PERT方法已经难以满足人们的需要。本文对现有的进度评估技术进行了改进,加入了对四种任务逻辑关系的支持,并给出了资源冲突时的解决策略,设计并实现了一个面向复杂项目的进度风险评估方法,不仅支持多种随机变量的抽样,还能够给出工期优化策略,旨在帮助项目决策者根据仿真结果识别关键任务,以此来制定合理的工期计划。

Because modern projects are becoming larger in size and more complex, the proper method to predict and design project's schedule has drawn many people's concern. The traditional CPM/PERT method is no longer able to satisfy modern projects. First, this paper sorts out all the schedule risk analysis methods. Second, based on them, a new schedule analysis method which supports all four task logic relationship is given, followed by a strategy to solve the conflicts of task resources. At last, a kind of software is built based on these theories, aiming at helping project manager recognize the critical tasks by simulation results and make a better schedule plan.