海洛因依赖人群规模估计方法研究

STUDY ON THE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF HEROIN ADDICTS

目的 :验证和筛选符合我国国情并适用于海洛因依赖者群体规模估计的方法。方法 :“Delphi法”和“滚雪球 -乘数法”结果相互验证。结果 :“Delphi法”估计数 :下限是 70 0 0人 ,上限是 15 0 0 0人 ,分别是当地公安机关在册人数的 1 4 1倍和 3 0 1倍 ;“滚雪球 -乘数法”估计数 :10 6 86人 ,是当地公安机关在册人数的 2 15倍。两种方法的估计结果基本一致。结论 :“Delphi法”和“滚雪球 -乘数法”的估计结果一致性较好 ,处于同一范围 (70 0 0 - 15 0 0 0人 ) ,可信度较高。“Delphi法”、“滚雪球—乘数法”和公安机关的在册登记人数均系利用不同资源和从不同侧面反映了当地海洛因依赖者人群规模状况。单一使用某种方法 ,极有可能造成对当地海洛因依赖者人群规模的估计偏差。因此 ,对某地区的海洛因依赖者人群规模实际估计时 ,应结合当地实际 ,多方法联合应用 ,以便相互对照 。

Objective: To screen and validate a suitable method for estimating the size of heroin addicts that can be applied in our county. Methods: The results estimated with the methods of “Delphi” and “snowball sampling” were mutually proved. Results: The lowest and highest numbers of heroin addicts estimated by“Delphi” were 7000 and 15 000,respectively, which were 1.41 and 3.01 times as much as that of the local public security bureau(PSB) registered. The number of heroin addicts estimated by the “snowball sampling” was 10 686, which was 2.15 times as much as that of local PSB registered. The results of the above two methods were basically similar. Conclusion: Both “Delphi” and “snowball sampling” methods have good consistency and high credibility in the estimation indicating the same scope (the number is 7000-15 000). Data obtained from different resources by“Delphi”, “snowball sampling” and police registration can reflect the scope of local heroin addicts and situation to some extent. However, there will be great possibility of deviation in the estimation if a single method is adopted.