城镇居民直接生活能耗的空间计量分析

A Spatial Econometric Analysis on Urban Residents Direct Energy Consumption

随着城镇化进程加快和收入水平提高,城镇居民直接生活能耗快速攀升,已经成为推动我国能源消费增长的重要力量。基于30个省份的数据,利用动态空间面板模型,对城镇居民直接生活能耗的空间相关性及影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明:城镇居民直接生活能耗具有显著的空间相关性,相邻省份的消费量会产生正向刺激效应;人口规模对城镇居民直接生活能耗的弹性系数为0.2386,具有明显的促进效应;收入水平的弹性系数为0.6142,是最重要的驱动因素;节能技术的弹性系数为0.1643,是居民生活能耗的抑制因素。另外,收入水平与城镇居民直接生活能耗之间存在典型的倒"U"型EKC关系,但要达到曲线拐点,尚需要较长的时间。基于上述分析,提出简要政策建议。

With the accelerating urbanization and income increasing, the direct life energy consumption of urban residents rose rapidly,and it became the important force to promote energy consumption in our country. Based on the data of 30 provinces,using dynamic spatial panel model,this paper analyzed the spatial correlation and the influence factors of urban residents directly life energy consumption. The results showed that space correlation were significant, and the energy consumption of adjacent provinces had positive stimulus effect. The elasticity coefficient of population was 0. 2386,so it had an obvious positive effect on energy consumption. The elasticity coefficient of income was 0. 6142,and it was the most important driving factor. The elasticity coefficient of energy utilization technology was 0. 1643,so it was the restraining factors of energy consumption. In addition,it showed typical inverted 'U'type EKC relationship between income level and urban residents direct life energy consumption. But it need long time to achieve inflexion point,and the time was different in different provinces to reach inflexion point. Based on the above,this article put forward some policy suggestions briefly.