老龄化、城镇化与碳排放——基于1995-2012年中国省级动态面板的研究

Aging,Urbanization and Carbon Emissions:Based on China's Provincial Dynamic Panel 1995-2012

基于1995-2012年的分省动态面板数据,通过改造KAYA恒等式,运用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)和Driscoll-Kraay协方差矩阵估计等计量方法对老龄化、城镇化与碳排放之间的关系进行了考察。研究表明,老龄化和城镇化均与碳排放存在倒"U"型关系:在老龄化初期由于存量人口红利的存在碳排放会保持上升趋势,但是长期来看人口寿命延长导致的老龄化对碳排放会产生明显的抑制作用;城镇化起步和加速阶段高耗能的生产和生活方式会增加碳排放,但当城镇化达到一定程度后,生产和消费方式的转变以及节能技术的发展会抑制碳排放的增加。

This paper is based on the provincial dynamic panel data of china which is counted from1995 to 2012,and investigates the relationship between demographic and carbon emissions through kinds of methods such as remoulding the KAYA equation,system GMM( SYS-GMM) and D-K estimation. The results shows that the aging and urbanization are inverted U-shaped relationship between the presence of carbon emissions: the carbon emissions will maintain an upward trend in the early stage of aging due to demographic dividend,but the life expectancy of the population will produce significant inhibition to carbon emissions in the long run; in the initial phase of urbanization,high-energy production would increase carbon emissions,but after reaching a certain degree of urbanization, changes in technology and the development of energy production and consumption patterns will curb carbon emissions increasing.