农民工永久性迁移与城镇化投资政策取向

Permanent Migration of Rural Migrant Workers and the Policy Choices for Investment in Urban Areas

将拥有城市住房作为农民工实现永久性迁移的标志,通过建立农民工的生命周期模型,对不同的城镇化投资政策进行比较静态分析,发现向大城市倾斜的投资政策,将使原本具备向小城市永久性迁移能力的农民工转而向大城市临时性迁移;向小城市倾斜的投资政策,将使向大城市临时性迁移的农民工转而向小城市永久性迁移,并使仍在大城市就业的农民工实现永久性迁移的可能性增大,总体上实现永久性迁移的农民工比例提高。因此,在未来的城镇化进程中,应制定向小城市倾斜的投资政策,引导产业项目和基础设施建设在住房支付能力强的小城市布局,提高其就业吸纳能力,改变我国城市就业吸纳能力和住房支付能力错配的现状,实现更多的农民工向城市永久性迁移。

This paper develops a Life Cycle Model of migrant workers. Using a comparative static analysis,taking housing as a sign of permanent migration,we find that investment policies favoring big cities encourages rural migrant workers to engage only in temporary moves to big cities.Investment policy favoring small cities encourages migrant workers to migrate to small cities on a permanent basis toward the latter part of their working lives. Surprisingly,such policy actually raises the probability of permanent migration of rural workers to big cities as well. The share of permanent migration increases. Hence,the government should invest in favor of small cities,and industry and infrastructure construction should be put in small cities where housing is more affordable. By altering the mismatch of employment and housing purchasing ability,more migrant workers can migrate permanently.