社会保障水平对人口结构的影响——理论与实证的分析

The Impact of Social Security Level on Demographic Structure:Theory and Empirical Analysis

社会保障水平对人口结构会产生重要作用。本文建立了社会保障水平与人口结构从微观到宏观的理论模型,并通过GMM面板模型对中国以及东盟相关国家1995-2013年的数据进行了实证分析。实证分析结果表明,由于近些年来中国以及东盟国家社会保障水平不断提高,使得社会保障替代率也随之上升,社会保障替代率的增加对婚姻的形成和总和生育率都产生了一种下降的激励,并且这种下降的激励不能够在跨期中被抵消和代际转移。最后针对中国实际提出相应政策建议。

Social security has played an important role in demographic structure. This paper found micro-to-macro benchmark about social security level and demographic structure,empirical analysis based on the data of China and ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2013 by GMM model. Empirical conclusions have shown that social security replacement rates are raised because social security level was increasing in China and ASEAN countries in recent years. Social security replacement rates depress total fertility rate and family married status by the change of social security rate,and can't be fully neutralized by counteracting inter-temporal or intergenerational transfers. Policy suggestions based on the analysis are proposed.