低生育率陷阱究竟是否存在?——对后生育率转变国家（地区）生育率长期变化趋势的观察

Whether the Low-fertility Trap Exists?Observations on the Long-term Changes in Fertility in Post-transitional Countries (Regions)

文章以总和生育率低于1.5持续时间达到20年及以上作为低生育率陷阱的判断标准,对66个1997年之前进入后生育率转变阶段的国家和地区的生育率变化趋势进行观察,有3个主要发现:一是低生育率陷阱并非偶然的存在,而且低生育率陷阱风险已经从22个国家和地区向世界其他国家和地区蔓延;二是低生育率陷阱并非不可避免,有21个国家和地区的总和生育率从未降到1.5以下,其中多数国家和地区在大多数年份都保持在1.7或1.8以上;三是低生育率陷阱并非不可以摆脱,但摆脱的国家和地区目前只是少数。由于生育率长期在低生育率陷阱临界水平上波动,平均生育意愿显著低于更替水平,以及其他对生育率具有负面影响的人口学因素的强化,中国已经面临着低生育率陷阱的高度风险。

Using total fertility rate(TFR)of below 1.5 for over 20 years as the criterion for judging the low-fertility trap,this research examines the trend of fertility change in 66 countries and regions that entered the post-transitional stage before 1997.Three main findings are as follows:First,the low-fertility trap is not accidental;the risk of low-fertility trap has spread from 22 countries and regions to other parts of the world.Second,the low-fertility trap is not inevitable.There are 21 countries and regions where TFR has never fallen below 1.5,and most of them have remained above 1.7 or 1.8 in most years.Third,the low-fertility trap is not unescapable,but only a small number of countries and regions have succeeded.China has long stood and fluctuated at the critical level of the low-fertility trap,the average fertility intension level is significantly lower than the replacement level,and other demographic factors that have a negative impact on fertility have strengthened,there is a high risk of falling into the low-fertility trap.