发展中国家人口监测调查实践及其对中国的启示——以DHS调查为例

Population Monitoring Surveys in Developing Countries and Implications for China: The Case of DHS Surveys

人口监测是开展人口战略研究和解决人口问题的基础性工作。建立和完善人口监测制度不仅是政府职责,而且具有人口统计方面的理论和方法意义。全球来看,大部分国家都重视人口监测,基本遵循着'行政记录+监测调查'的模式。生命登记系统比较完备的国家通过开展人口统计调查来弥补行政记录的不足,而行政记录不完善的国家更是依靠人口统计调查来开展人口监测。文章考察了目前全球最大的、主要在发展中国家开展的人口统计与健康调查(DHS调查)在组织实施、调查内容、问卷设计、样本规模、抽样方法以及数据开发应用等方面的具体做法,分析了DHS调查的经验与不足,并结合中国人口监测调查现状,对中国人口监测调查制度进行了设计,提出了当前中国人口监测调查制度建设的重点工作。

Population monitoring is the fundamental work for carrying out population strategy research and solving population problems.Establishing and Improving the population monitoring system is not only the responsibility of the government,but also has theoretical and methodological significance in the field of demographic statistics.Globally,all countries in the world attach importance to population monitoring,and basically follow the model of'administrative records+monitoring and investigation'.Countries with complete vital registration system also conduct demographic surveys to make up for the deficiency of administrative records,while countries with imperfect administrative records rely on demographic surveys to carry out population monitoring.This paper examines the detailed practices of the largest demographic and health survey in the world,mainly in developing countries,in perspective of organization and implementation,survey content,questionnaire design,sample size,sampling methods,and data development and application.Based on the current situation of China’s demographic surveys,this paper describes China’s population monitoring system,clarifies the features of China’s population monitoring system,and also puts forward the key work of the current population monitoring system construction in China.