中国的第二次人口转变

The Second Demographic Transition in China

近20年来,第二次人口转变是用于解释全球范围内家庭领域发生新变化的最主要的理论框架。文章通过分析人口普查、1%人口抽样调查和中国家庭追踪调查数据,对我国第二次人口转变的主要指标进行了全面的评估,包括初婚年龄、同居率、离婚率以及生育方面的指标。研究结果表明,第二次人口转变在我国的发展与西方有着不同的轨迹,不同方面的家庭行为的变化程度差异较大。结婚与同居这些更为个体化的家庭行为经历了较为剧烈的变化,男性与女性不断推迟进入初婚的时间,同居也变得越来越普遍。在养育子女方面,婚外生育与已婚不育仍然非常少见。离婚率虽然有所上升,但整体还维持在较低的水平。文章提出,对我国家庭领域变化的理解应该充分考虑我国独特的社会、历史与文化背景。

In the past two decades,the Second Demographic Transition(SDT)has become a major theoretical framework in explaining changes in family behaviors in many countries in the world.Using data from Census,mini-Census,and China Family Panel Studies,we present an overall evaluation of the indicators of the SDT in China's Mainland,including marriage timing,cohabitation rate,divorce rate,and fertility behavior.Our results suggest that different aspects of the SDT have had varying trajectories in China,in comparison to the West.A rapid change has been observed among more individualized family behavior like marriage and cohabitation:both men and women postpone the timing of transition to first marriage;cohabitation increases rapidly.In terms of childbearing,the extramarital childbirth rate and childless rate among married women are still rare.Divorce rate experienced a slow increase across cohorts,yet our prediction implies that it will remain relatively low in the near future.This study suggests that we should integrate local social,historical and cultural backgrounds in understanding family changes in China.