2018年我国生猪市场回顾及2019年形势展望

Review of our country's live pig market in 2018 and situation prospect of 2019

2019年对生猪市场影响最大的因素仍是非洲猪瘟疫情。在非瘟影响下,虽然地区间生猪价格差异巨大,但是地区生猪价格乃至全国生猪价格的变化,依然会遵循供求关系的规律,遵循价格的基本规律。因此,供应层面和需求层面的变化依然是影响生猪价格利多和利空的基本因素。最新的调运政策有所放松,全国价差有望缩小。生猪、猪肉产品的调运限制有所放松,新调运政策采用疏堵结合的方式,由单一的防控到兼顾生猪生产和肉品供应稳定转变。随着毛猪流通性加强,低价猪源将冲击高价区,低价区肉猪将得到疏通,猪价反弹,高价区随着供应量的增多,猪价将承压下滑,各区域间价差将缩小。

The most influential factor on the live pig market in 2019 was still African swine fever epidemic situation.Under the influence of African swine fever,although there were huge differences in the price of territorial live pig,the change of the price of territorial live pig prices and even the price of national live pig still followed the law of supply-demand relationship and the basic law of price.Therefore,the changes in supply level and demand level were still the basic factors that affected the profitability and shortage of price of live pig.The latest allocation and transportation policy was relaxed,and the national spread was expected to shrink.The restrictions on the allocation and transportation of live pigs and pork products was relaxed,and the combination of dredging and plugging was adopted in the new allocation and transportation policy,and it was transformed stably from single prevention and control to giving consideration to live pig production and meat supply.With the strengthen of the circulation of pigs,the resource of pig at a low price would hit the high price area,and the pig at a low price would be dredged,and the price of pigs would rebound.With the increase in supply in the high price area,the price of pig would fall under pressure,and the spread between regions would be narrow.